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Saturday, August 6, 2016

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (August 8 - 12, 2016)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:
                                          
EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
This pair could not sustain the bullish run it started in the last week of July 2016. Price made a faint bullish effort on Monday and Tuesday, went briefly above the resistance line at 1.1200, reached the weekly high of 1.1231, and then declined 180 pips, to close above the resistance line at 1.1050 (which was tested before the close of the market). Since the bias on the market is bearish, further decline is possible, which may take price towards the support lines at 1.1050 and 1.1000; even if there would be a brief reversal following that. For the support line at 1.1000 to be broken to the downside, there is a need for very strong bearish pressures.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
Although USDCHF has gone upwards 180 pips since last Wednesday, bears are still very active in the market. For the bias to turn bullish, there is a need for at least, another 200 pips to the upside, which would require a strong bullish pressure. Further upwards movement in the context of a short-term downward is what is anticipated this week. However, the presence of bears ought not to be ignored, for they would take advantage of any opportunity they have, to push price lower.  

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
On this market, the bias on the 4-hour and daily charts is bearish. The market was flat on Monday, went upwards on Tuesday, went flat again on Wednesday, and then moved south on Thursday and Friday. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and GBP is expected to be weak versus major currencies this week, with a few exceptions. While it is expected that price could go more downwards, it would encounter extremely recalcitrant accumulation territories along the way, which would challenge the current bearish outlook.
 
USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
What happened on August 2, 2016, was the only trending movement that was witnessed on USDJPY last week – the rest was consolidation. The market closed on Friday as bulls were beginning to grow impatient with the existing situation; though their impatience would do nothing more than a short-term rally, because the bias on the market is bearish and further bearish movement is anticipated. The demand levels at 101.00, 100.50 and 100.00 would be interesting to watch this week.   
                                                                                                                               
EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
This cross went south gradually last week, managing to record another decline by 200 pips. There is a clean Bearish Confirmation Pattern on the cross (and also a bearish outlook on JPY pairs), and as a result of this, price is expected to continue moving south by at least 200: either gradually or speedily. Long trades are not advised unless the market situation changes.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“Instead of trying to figure out why markets moved, ignore that and look for more trading opportunities!” - Rick Wright



  

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