Saturday, August 20, 2016

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (August 22 - 26, 2016)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:
Dominant bias: Bullish
EURUSD went upwards 200 pips last week, testing the resistance line at 1.1350 before the current shallow retracement. Price may be able to target the resistance lines at 1.1400 and 1.1450 this week, but bulls might encounter some challenges doing this. There is a possibility of a pullback, which might bring another opportunity to go long at a lower price or bring an end to the current bullish outlook on the market.

Dominant bias: Bearish
USDCHF went in the opposite direction to EURUSD, moving briefly below the support level at 0.9550, and then closing at 0.9600 on Friday. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, which means it may continue trending downwards, on the condition that EURUSD would continue trending upwards; otherwise a rally would ensue. A show of weakness in EURUSD and CHF (for CHF could experience some weakness against the majors this week) would help to bring about a rally in USDCHF.    

Dominant bias: Bearish
GBPUSD went upwards from Tuesday to Friday last week, pulling back by over 130 pips on Friday, and closing above the accumulation territory at 1.3050. The bearish outlook remains in place, unless price goes upwards by at least, another 300 pips from the current location. Without this condition being fulfilled, GBPUSD might experience a further pullback, which might possibly be aided by a bearish movement on GBPCAD (since CAD would rally against other pairs this week). GBPCAD and GBPUSD sometimes get positively correlated. At times, it is helpful to know how conditions surrounding other pairs and crosses affect the instrument we focus on.    
Dominant bias: Bearish
This pair declined 170 pips on August 15 and 16, and then moved sideways for the rest of the week, all in the context of a downtrend. The outlook on the pair, plus other JPY pairs, continues to be bearish (though CADJPY could rally when CAD gains stamina). This week, the demand levels at 100.00, 99.50 and 99.00 might be tested. The demand levels at 100.00 and 99.50 were tested last week, but price could not stay below them.   
Dominant bias: Neutral
This cross has been consolidating for the last two weeks; an event which has brought about a neutral bias in the near term (although the bias is bearish in the long-term). Further sideways movement would continue to emphasize the neutral bias, until there is a breakout this week or next, which would most probably favor bears, as price goes towards the demand zones at 112.50, 112.00 and, especially 111.50.    

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“Now I am devoted to Forex and fully focused on developing my trading strategy to become a full-time trader.” – Lukasz (source: Tradimo)

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