“As a trader, one of my daily affirmations is: Detach from
the outcome of each trade.” – Dr. Janice
Dorn
Certain attempts are needed to analyze the markets
objectively. One shouldn’t be subjective, except the analytical tools
themselves are ineffectual. Everyday speculation isn’t mandatory; and some
traders prefer to look at the Big Picture. Certain reversals took place last
month - significant reversals, and as such, the month of September would now
show whether the counter-trend reversals would be sustained or the overall
trends would resume. Risk control on equities should also be borne in mind, for
the markets won’t always do want you want them to do (they’ll do only want they
want to do), irrespective of your will. Nevertheless, trading is really
fascinating. Gone are the days when the financial markets were monopolized by
financial trading and other types of institutions. Our appreciation goes to the
World Wide Web and cutting edge technological devices. Forex has long been
easily traded by retail speculators. Besides, the benefits of this vast market
have been appreciated by multitudes. But in the presently turbulent price
phases, the effort of many companies to satisfy the want of the speculator is
huge.
Below is
the summary of some of my trading forecasts this month:
AUDUSD
Primary
trend: Bearish
This
pair was weakened last week and it seems it would continue doing so. We’ve a
Divergence Pattern on the chart as the bears still show of their strength. For
anyone who’s interested in shorting this pair, it’s still relatively early to
do so. The support levels at 1.0300 and 10.200 can be breached this month as
the pair weakens further. The logic here remains that, if the USD, which is
weaker than some currencies like EUR, USD and CHF, could be stronger than the
AUDUSD, then it is logical to short this pair.
AUDJPY
Primary trend: Bearish
The outlook on the AUDJPY is similar to
that of the AUDUSD - something that further confirms the weakness in the Aussie.
Right now we have a Bearish Divergence Pattern on the chart representing this
cross. The ADX 14 line just crossed the level 30 upwards, as the MACD histogram
just fell below the level 0, while its signal line is heading downwards. The
sell signal is still early.
EURNZD
Primary
trend: Bullish
This
cross is now showing the relative strength as opposed to the EURNZD. We now
have a bullish Confirmation Pattern at its early stages as both the signal line
and the histogram of the MACD have newly crossed the zero line upwards. The ADX
+DI is now above its -DI counterpart. The resistance lines to be broken this
month would be those at the levels 1.5700 and 1.5800.
EURCAD
Primary trend: Bullish
What’s
happening on this market clearly shows that the EUR is not hopeless at the
moment. Further bearish pressure has been rejected after months of downtrend.
The price happens to be bottoming out right now, as the indicators on the chart
show a Converging Pattern. This makes us concludes that sellers are getting
weaker and weaker as the price is poised to go up. There are support levels at 1.2300
and 1.2250.
AUDNZD
Primary trend: Bearish
The Aussie is even weaker than its Kiwi counterpart as shown
by the price chart representing this cross. This is clearly a weak market, and
as weak as it looks, going short on it looks very tricky. The MACD gives a sell
signal - as its signal line and histogram have already crossed the zero line to
the downside. The -DI of the ADX itself has crossed its +DI counterpart to the
upside.
GBPCHF
Primary trend: Bearish
The GBPCHF consolidated lower in the month of August 2012. We’ve
a clean ‘sell’ signal as the indicators on the chart show a bearish
Confirmation Pattern - something that is still early enough to be taken advantage
of. The ADX line has crossed the level 30 to the upside as the MACD itself have
had both its signal line and the histogram crossed the zero line to the
downside. I would short this instrument.
Conclusion: The end results of our trading activities are gains.
The summary of everything is that, we trade for pecuniary gains, just like
everybody. Some must lose for others to gain - and vice versa. You’re not to be
told before you acknowledge that life itself is a game of chance. But why do
some find it difficult to be triumphant in the markets? Why does it seem that
many of your orders tend to go negative? It all boils down to some trading
biases. Regrettably, most speculators fail to learn form their errors - the
errors that bar them from the coveted trading progress. Lessons from others
could be better. Speculators come to ruin not as a result of bad brokers, poor
market information or malfunctioning platforms, but as a result of their
dangerous trading styles.
The article is concluded with the
quotes below:
“When I board a plane, I know
there are risks, but I don’t let that stop me from flying. Years of Air Force
training helped me develop an awareness of flight safety and emergency
planning. I know how to put on an oxygen mask, how to open the emergency doors
should I need to, and where my seat is in relation to the exit rows. In other
words, I accept the risks because they're tolerable, and because I’m prepared
for them. Similarly, my training through [a trading institute] has helped me
develop an awareness of risk management and the need to plan for worst-case
scenarios in the markets.”
- R. J. Hixson (square brackets mine)
“Optimism bias refers to people’s tendency to
believe that they are better than average, and that misfortunes are more likely
to happen to other people rather than themselves. Buyers and sellers in
zero-sum markets believe that they have the edge over the other party in the
transaction; otherwise the market would not exist.” - Dr. Woody Johnson
Your questions and opinions are highly welcome.
Thank you.
With best regards,
Azeez Mustapha
Forex Signals Strategist, Funds
Manager &Coach
Open an account here: eng.fxclearing.ca/ib/915
If you want to receive permanently free winning Forex
trading signals, please send me an email titled: “A Request for Free Trading
Signals.”
Send the request to: saazalmu@yahoo.com
Yahoo! Messenger ID: saazalmu
NB: There is risk of loss in
trading, but it is possible to be a successful trader.
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