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Monday, September 17, 2012

Royal Bank of Scotland: What Next?


On August 1, 2012, I wrote an article about Royal Bank of Scotland Group (LSE:RBS). Here is the link to that article: http://www.advfn.com/newspaper/azeez-mustapha/7605/royal-bank-of-scotland-group-buyers-gain-upper-hands. In it I said that buyers would gain upper hands, especially following a long period of bearish run. The technical analysis used showed that the stock was supposed to rally after an extended downward movement. The technical reason behind this was also given. The forecast has proven to be correct as the stock perked up - not for a somber future - but a brighter one.
Some readers and speculators ask, WHAT NEXT? As the recent chart on RBS shows, institutions are now holding long orders as some misinformed private traders still remain short. This signifies a nice chance to maintain bullish orders on the market. 

Technical Forecast
As far as this market is concerned, the price has turned bullish. This has been imputed to bullish pressures, as the price now possesses the temerity to subjugate bears conspicuously. Since late July, the price has been trying to go northward despite some pullbacks in the price. For this analysis, Parallel Trendlines and Relative Strength Index (RSI) period 14 are used. The Trendlines show that there has been a sharp rise in the price for several days, especially since the beginning of September 2012. The bullish pressure would be valid as long as the price stays above the lower Trendline (price is expected to break out of the upper Trendline as the northward rally continues). Even if the price breaks the lower Trendline to the downside, the bullish bias would still remain intact; as long as the RSI 14 stays above the level 50. Even this forecasted downward correction would only enable new buyers to enter at a lower price in the context of an uptrend. 

Right now, there has been some insignificant bearish pulls. This is normal and expected, given the fact that the RSI 14 has gone into the overbought region (a correction was bound to happen here). Once again, as long as the RSI 14 remains above the level 50, the current bullish run is valid. When this article was being prepared, the price was closed at 274.4. As the market opens, immediate support levels would be around 274.00 and 265.50; immediate resistance zones that the price would need to break before going further up would be 275.00 and 275.50. I would recommend only long positions at this stage. Going short could be catastrophic. Irrational behavior may preclude traders from making wise decisions.

Conclusion: Though trading the RBS shares can be an emotional issue, careful and honest analysis of what the market is doing will help us realize the fact.  Probably one of the best things speculators can do continually to their advantage is to buy pullbacks in an uptrend (or sell rallies in a downtrend). 

This article is ended with the quote below:

“I believe the market speaks in terms of price.” – Ken Long




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Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

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