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Saturday, March 5, 2016

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (March 7 - 11, 2016)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:
                                          
EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish   
As it was mentioned in the last forecast, EURUSD has been making some bullish attempt, which, however, has not been significant enough to render the recent bearish bias invalid. Bears pushed price downwards, but met a stiff rejection at the support line of 1.0850. Price then moved sideways and later broke upwards on Thursday, trending upwards by at least 160 pips. Since it is expected that the bullish attempt would continue this week, price could reach the resistance lines at 1.1050 and 1.1100 in the week.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Neutral
USDCHF merely moved sideways throughout last week, with no directional journey to the upside or to the downside. The sideways movement was generally between the support level at 0.9900 and the resistance level at 1.0000. Nevertheless, there is going to be a breakout this week, which would most probably favor sellers, because this pair would continue to be influenced by gravity as long as EURUSD is making bullish attempt. The support level at 0.9800 could thus be tested this week.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish    
The bias on Cable is now bullish. Throughout last week, Cable made a perpetual journey to the north, going upwards by 400 pips and almost testing the distribution territory at 1.4250 (after price started going upward from the accumulation territory at 1.3850 on Monday). There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market and it is much more likely that Cable would go upwards by at least, additional 200 pips this week.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Neutral   
Unlike most other JPY pairs, which traded upwards last week, USDJPY simply moved sideways. This is because USD is not strong enough to take advantage of the weak JPY (as other pairs like AUDJPY and NZDJPY have done). In fact, we can see that USD is weak versus other major pairs (like AUDUSD, NZDUSD, GBPUSD, etc.). This week, there is a probability that USDJPY would continue moving sideways or even consolidate to the downside, for there may not be a significant rally here as long as USD is weak.     
     
                                                                                                                               
EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
This cross traded downwards on Monday, going briefly below the demand zone at 122.50 on Tuesday and then starting a bullish journey on the same day (March 1, 2016), which saw a gain of almost 450 pips at the end of that week. The supply zone at 125.50 has already been tested and it would be breached to the upside as bullish continues to push price upwards. The supply levels at 126.00 and 126.50 are potential targets for bulls this week.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“How about your trading? What reward/risk ratio do you think is acceptable on your trades? Do you have a defined targeted ratio before you enter a position and an acceptable effective ratio resulting from your trades? Do you manage your current reward risk ratio on open positions? Developing a strong and deeper understanding of your reward to risk management can be a great edge and a path to trading mastery.” - Sam Eder (Source: Vantharp.com)



What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: http://www.advfnbooks.com/books/supertraders/index.html



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