Saturday, July 30, 2016

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (August 1 – 5, 2016)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:
Dominant bias: Bullish
This pair assumed a bullish journey last week, going upwards 230 pips. Price topped at 1.1195, closing above the support line at 1.1150. There is now a bullish signal in the market, which shows the possibility of price going further upwards. As forecasted in the last article, major pairs (with the exception of GBPUSD) moved more strongly than they did between July 18 to 22. As long as USD remains weak, EURUSD would continue going upwards. In August 2016, EUR would rally against most major pairs, meeting possible challenges only against JPY and (possibly JPY).

Dominant bias: Bearish
Contrary to expectation, USDCHF declined significantly because USD lost stamina. Although price initially went up by over 90 pips, almost reaching the resistance level at 0.9950, it later suffered a setback. From the high of 0.9949, price move south 300 pips, reaching a weekly low of 0.9635. There is now a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market: Further bearish movement is possible this week, provided USD continues its weakness.

Dominant bias: Neutral
Cable merely went sideways last week – which means the present tight equilibrium phase remains valid. A strong breakout would occur this week or next, which would result in an end to the current equilibrium phase in the market. Normally, there ought to be a movement of 500 pips to the upside or to the downside, for the equilibrium phase to end. In August, GBP would rally versus AUD and NZD, but may experience difficulties in doing so versus JPY (and possibly USD).
Dominant bias: Bearish
Just as it was forecasted, USDJPY went bearish, going down 450 pips last week. Bulls fought gallantly against the bearish trend that started at the beginning of last week, but they suffered ignominious defeat on Friday. Price is expected to reach the demand levels at 101.50, 101.00 and 100.50 this week, unless some opposition arises as a result of a possible stamina in USD. Selling pressure is also visible on other JPY pairs, and it is worth mentioning that the outlook on JPY pairs is strongly bearish for the month of August 2016.  
Dominant bias: Bearish
Just like most other JPY pairs, this currency trading instrument went south on Monday and Tuesday, but bulls managed to halt further southward movement on Wednesday and Thursday. However, bulls gave in to bearish pressure on Friday as price nosedived by 250 pips, closing at 113.94 that day. There is a clean bearish outlook on the market and further southward journey is possible.  

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“Develop and adhere to a system, not random and erratic acts of inconsistent trading.” – Louise Bedford


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