Saturday, July 9, 2016

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (July 11 - 15, 2016)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:
Dominant bias: Bearish
This pair moved sideways last week, with no major bearish or bullish movement, though the overall bias remains bearish. There are support lines at 1.0000, 1.0950 and 1.0900. The support line at 1.1000 is a formidable barrier, and should price go below it, the support lines below it could be tested. On the other hand, there are resistance lines at 1.1150, 1.1200 and 1.1250, which could also be tested when bulls become strong enough to effect any short-term rally. The outlook on the market is bearish for this month; whereas that does not rule out bullish attempts this week.   

Dominant bias: Bullish  
USDCHF was able to move further upwards last week. Bulls achieved a feat when they pushed price above the support level at 0.9800 (which used to be an obstacle to them). Price was then pushed towards the resistance level at 0.9850, which has already been tested. There two threats against the current bullish outlook: 1). CHF could become strong any time this month. 2). USD may become weak versus other major currencies before the end of this week. Until one of these two threats materialize, USDCHF would continue trudging upwards.   

Dominant bias: Bearish  
This currency trading instrument is still in a major downtrend. Price dropped 460 pips last week, reaching a low of 1.2796 and closing at 1.2951. The market went sideways in the last few days of the week. This week, there is a high probability that price would trend upwards (plus this could be witnessed on some GBP pairs). GBP might gain some strength this week or next week, but it is very much unlikely that the market would reach the high of June 23 anytime soon.  This means that, while there could be a rally in the market, the dominant bias would continue to be bearish.
Dominant bias: Bearish
The market went down more than 250 pips last week, to close at 100.56 on Friday. The outlook on the market, and of course, on other JPY pairs, remains bearish. Price could trend further downwards, as it goes for the demand levels at 100.00, 99.50 and 99.00. The task is to break below the demand level at 100.00 first, after which it would be easier to reach other demand levels below it. Any rallies in this market ought to be ignored.        
Dominant bias: Bearish
The “sell” signal on EURJPY is still a valid thing, since there is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. Price declined further by 330 pips from Monday to Wednesday, and consolidated till the end of the week. Like other JPY pairs, further decline is expected; and any rallied seen here are essentially opportunities to seek short trades. There are intriguing demand zones at 110.50, 110.00 and 109.50.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“You know those adages about smelling the roses and chasing butterflies? The markets are my butterflies and my roses.” - Bill Gross  

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