Friday, March 10, 2017

Why am I still losing in Forex?

I’ve read 3 books, watched dozens of videos,and I have a well thought out strategy. Risk/Reward-3:1. My average win is about $35 and loss $28. What can I do to refine my strategy, and cut my losses? I feel like I am extremely close to being profitable, and I need a boost.

Let me give it to you straight.

You are on the right track. What you are trying to do is the equivalent of becoming a concert pianist, professional basketball player, or racecar driver.

Can you imagine saying “I’ve read 3 whole books on piano, watched a bunch of youtube… why can’t I get a paying job?”

You have a system, that puts you ahead of 90% of participants. Good for you, seriously.

Here’s how I work up a new system.

Firstly I want to make sure my prospective system is an edge. That means backtesting the ever lovin shit out of it. If you can’t program or it’s a discretionary system, that means pulling out charts and marking things up, taking screencaptures and spreadsheets. A lot of work - yeah it is, for most systems a few months of full time work before you are any where near to make the first trade. There are small optimisations you can make on exits and stop distances to tweak things. The time you move your trade to breakeven can make a big difference also. If the drawdowns are too big I suggest banking some partial profit at your average win (in R) so that you reduce standard deviation, and therefore drawdowns.

Secondly, you want to paper trade it for a while. You want to log both your system performance and your own performance (mistake rate)

Thirdly I start trading for really small money. Losing $50 / trade when it all goes bad. If I go 20 trades without making a mistake, I raise size. If I make more than one mistake every 20 trades, I lower size.

That’s how I do it, anyway.

Imagine you put a plank on the ground. Walk on it without falling off, thats paper trading. Put it 30cm off the ground, thats $50/trade trading. Trading for thousands of dollars per trade is the same thing, but the plank is now suspended between two buildings. If you just go straight to the tall building you are going to get freaked out at some point and make a fatal mistake.

Work yourself up to the main game SLOWLY. Remember, the goal is not to win, but to limit losses. Winning takes care of itself.

Perfect Money/Payeer here:

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