Saturday, April 1, 2017

Weekly Trading Forecasts for Major Pairs (April 3 - 7, 2017)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

Dominant bias: Bearish
This pair went upwards early last week, tested the resistance line at 1.0900 and then nosedived by almost 250 pips. Price is now very close to the support line at 1.0650, which would be breached to the downside as price goes towards another support lines at 1.0600 and 1.0550. The outlook on EURUSD, as well as other EUR pairs, is mostly bearish for this week and for this month; though there would be some visible rally attempts in the market.

Dominant bias: Bearish
USDCHF went upwards last week. Price first moved briefly below the support level at 0.9850 and then rose upwards for the rest of the week, closing above the support level at 1.0000. A movement above the resistance level at 1.0050 would pose a threat to the recent bearish bias; while a movement above the resistance level at 1.0100 would result in a bullish bias. This week and this month, the movements on USDCHF would be largely determined by whatever happens to EURUSD.

Dominant bias: Bullish  
GBPUSD first moved upwards last week, testing the distribution territory at 1.2600 and then went south, reaching the accumulation territory at 1.2400. Price made several futile attempts to breach that accumulation territory, and later rose up towards the distribution 1.2550. The distribution territories at 1.2600 and 1.2650 could be tested this week, as the market goes further upwards. There would be very strong bearish and bullish movements on GBPUSD this month (which is true of other GBP pairs).
Dominant bias: Bearish
USDJPY went upwards throughout last week, but that was not significant enough to override the current bearish bias. Price reached the supply level at 112.00 and later closed below the supply level at 111.50. There was an expectation of a very strong bullish movement last week: The market did move upwards but it was only a movement of roughly 170 pips. Price may move further upwards, but that movement would not be strong. The outlook on JPY pairs is bearish for April 2017.  

Dominant bias: Bearish   
The market consolidated for most of last week, in the context of a downtrend. The consolidation started on March 22 and ended on March 31, when price broke southwards, closing below the supply zone at 119.00. There are immediate targets at the demand zones of 118.50 and 118.00, but the targets may be exceeded. The outlook on JPY pairs is bearish for the month of April, and as EUR becomes weaker in itself, the market would continue to journey southwards.   

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“A trading strategy is defined by a set of rules. It is following these rules that give the system it’s ‘edge’ over a period of time. This edge produces a result that is better than random, and most importantly produces a profit.” - Jasper Lawler


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