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Thursday, September 25, 2014

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (September 29 – October 3, 2014)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish  
The bearish journey of this pair has continued unabated; in a slow and steady manner. In the past several weeks, the market has been breaking one support line after the other and it is currently trading below the resistance line at 1.2800. Further bearish journey might cause the price to test another support lines at 1.2700 and 1.2650 successively. Along the way, there is also a risk of large rallies – which can be brought about by sudden weakness in the Greenback. The probable rallies can take the price towards the resistance lines at 1.2900 and 1.2950.  

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish   
The USDCHF pair has been achieving incredible feats by breaking one resistance level after the other. The pair has succeeded in closing above the support level at 0.9400, going further upwards. As long as the USD is strong (and the EURUSD is weak), the pair would be going upwards. There are possible targets at the resistance levels at 0.9500 and 0.9550; whereas the support levels at 0.9350 and 0.9300 should act as barriers to southward attempts along way.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish   
There is a bullish signal in this market, as long as it stays above the accumulation territory of 1.6300. However, the bullish signal is very precarious because of the bears’ effort to drag the price further downwards. The market is largely moving sideways and thus, a breakout is expected. A breakout to the upside may cause the price to test the distribution territories at 1.6450 and 1.6500, while a break to the downside would cause the price to test the accumulation territories at 1.6200 and 1.6150 respectively.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
This currency trading instrument is still strong, given the Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market. The USDJPY can still go further north, but long orders should be handled with caution because the possibility of a determined bearish correction is now very high. While the USDJPY might manage to reach the psychological supply level at 100.00, any exponential weakness may cause the market to retrace southward towards the demand levels at 108.00 and 107.50.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish  
This cross is still generally bullish, but the pullback that has occurred since last week has made the price action dangerous for the bulls. With a movement below the demand zone at 138.50, the bullish bias would be rendered completely invalid. The price needs to break the supply zone at 140.50 to the upside so that the bullish trend can resume; otherwise we may expect the bias to turn completely bearish.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“In financial markets too, there are underlying forces an investor or trader has to know and needs to respect in order to be successful.” – Dirk Vandycke




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