Thursday, September 18, 2014

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (September 22 - 26, 2014)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

Dominant bias: Bearish  
The bias on the EURUSD is still very bearish irrespective of the shallow rally the market is currently experiencing. In this market, rallies have proffered opportunities to sell short in the context of a downtrend. The continuation of the bearish bias may force the price to test the support line at 1.2800. Along the way, serious bullish breakouts may be contained at the resistance lines of 1.3000 and 1.3050. Any movement above these resistance lines would signify the beginning a new bullish journey.

Dominant bias: Bullish   
This currency trading instrument is in a bullish mode – with a clean Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market. The bulls have always been interested in pushing the pair further upwards, but this is not without stubborn challenges from the bears. The challenges have resulted in high volatility in the market, and the price may still manage to reach the resistance level at 0.9500, which is the target for next week (provided that the USD continues to be strong).

Dominant bias: Bullish   
This pair - unlike its EURUSD counterpart - has broken upwards in favor of the bulls. In fact, the price action in the market has resulted in an established bullish signal and short trades are no longer rational. The market is now moving above the accumulation territory at 1.6300, going towards the distribution territory at 1.6450. As long as the market is above the aforementioned accumulation territory, the bullish signal is considered valid.  

Dominant bias: Bullish
This is a strong bull market which has been going upwards since July 2014. Since then, the perpetual weakness in the Yen has enabled this pair to move north by over 750 pips. The same weakness in the Yen has enabled most other JPY pairs go north significantly. This market looks very overbought and a reversal is imminent, but is not advisable to go against the trend until that reversal has taken place. The market can still go further north; testing the supply levels at 109.50 and 110.00. Should the Yen gain any considerable stamina, the market may plunge towards the demand levels at 107.00 and 106.50.

Dominant bias: Bullish  
It is not a surprise that the EUR, which is weak somewhere else, is strong versus the JPY. The weakness in the JPY is the basic reason for the bullish momentum that is driving this market upwards. From the demand zone at 136.00, the price skyrocketed above the demand zone at   140.00, going further upwards. This is a movement of over 440 pips since last week. The market is overbought, but it is still seen as being capable of reaching the supply zones at 150.50 and 160.00 respectively. Nevertheless, the downside risk is now very high and any sudden strength in the Yen could make the price tumble, reaching the demand zones at 139.00 and 138.50.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

"With love and patience, nothing is impossible for a dedicated trader." -- Old Trader

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