Thursday, September 4, 2014

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (September 8 - 12, 2014)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

Dominant bias: Bearish  
The sudden weakness in the EUR has caused this pair to tumble. The pair was already bearish when this happened (it has been bearish since June 2014). On Thursday, September 4, 2014, the pair fell further by over 200 pips. In fact, all other EUR pairs tumbled. Therefore, it is plausible to expect further downward plunge in the market, and should this hold true, the price could reach the support levels at 1.2850 and 1.2800. On the other hand, it could have happened that the pair has hit a rock-solid bottom that may be a barrier to further southward journey for the next several weeks. Any rallies in the context of the downtrend could take the price back towards the resistance levels at 1.3100 and 1.3150.

Dominant bias: Bullish   
Since the USD/CHF is negatively correlated to the EUR/USD, it is no wonder that the former has gone upwards determinedly. Really, our target for this week has been exceeded and price is now poised to go upwards towards the resistance levels at 0.9400 and 0.9450. However, the USD attainment of parity with the CHF is not likely in the long run – that is a far cry. As long as the EUR is weak and the USD is strong, the bullish trend would continue; but should the opposite occur, a strong bearish retracement may force the price to test the support levels at 0.9200 and 0.9150 respectively.    

Dominant bias: Bearish  
The consolidated bullish attempt that occurred on the Cable last week turned out to be an opportunity to go short. This week, the market has dropped by over 300 pips, going below the distribution territory at 1.3650. The distribution territories at 1.6400 and 1.6450 could be barriers to any bullish attempts in the context of the currently strong downtrend. The next target in the market is the accumulation territory at 1.6200.

Dominant bias: Bullish
Since the Greenback has lots of stamina in it, it is more likely that this currency trading instrument would continue to go further upwards, going towards the supply level at 106.00. The demand level at 104.50 is an immediate hindrance to any pullback that may occur along the way.

Dominant bias: Bearish  
The sudden loss of stamina in this cross (brought about by further weakness in the Euro) has led to a new lease of Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market.  The demand zone at 136.00 has been tested, and with further weakness of the cross, the price can go on towards another demand zone at 135.00.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“Swing trading is actually one of the best trading styles for the beginning trader to get his or her feet wet, but it still offers significant profit potential for intermediate and advanced traders. Swing traders receive sufficient feedback on their trades after a couple of days to keep them motivated, but their long and short positions of several days are of the duration that does not lead to distraction.” – Jason Van Bergen (Source:

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